NYI beat FLA 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 3.1, NYI 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Maxim Tsyplakov scored at 12:16 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 17% to 51%. Ilya Sorokin saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:00 |  FLA | Sam Reinhart from Aleksander Barkov, Gustav Forsling | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 4:48 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Sam Reinhart, Eetu Luostarinen | 2–0 | 68% → 82% |
| P3 6:29 | NYI | Marc Gatcomb from Tony DeAngelo, Pierre Engvall | 2–1 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 12:16 | NYI | Maxim Tsyplakov from Mike Reilly, Tony DeAngelo | 2–2 | 17% → 51% |
| P3 12:33 | NYI | Noah Dobson from Anders Lee | 2–3 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 19:53 | NYI | Simon HolmstromEN from Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksander Barkov C | 17:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.46 | +0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.44 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 18:17 | +0.33 | +0.40 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 25:40 | +0.19 | +0.37 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 25:17 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:02 | +0.06 | +0.32 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 16:33 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 10:41 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 10:02 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 17:40 | −0.08 | +0.39 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 12:34 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 17:10 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:42 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 14:53 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 6:00 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 12:28 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 21:34 | −0.33 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:06 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 57:52 | +0.21 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 8:38 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.10 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 21:58 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.10 | +0.63 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Gatcomb C | 9:08 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.10 | +0.51 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 12:24 | +0.25 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 14:23 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hudson Fasching R | 13:00 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 12:19 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 23:42 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 8:58 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 21:22 | −0.16 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:41 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 26:24 | −0.22 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 22:46 | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:21 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 20:40 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 15:37 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 22:25 | −0.62 | −0.16 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:17 | 1 | −0.63 | −0.20 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:00 | +1.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.