COL beat CGY 4–2. COL also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan Lindgren scored at 13:21 of the first, moving COL’s win probability from 47% to 64%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:21 |  COL | Ryan Lindgren from Ross Colton | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 15:24 | COL | Parker Kelly from Logan O'Connor, Jack Drury | 2–0 | 70% → 87% |
| P3 3:08 |  CGY | Blake Coleman from Matt Coronato, MacKenzie Weegar | 2–1 | 9% → 26% |
| P3 5:55 | COL | Parker Kelly from Ross Colton | 3–1 | 76% → 93% |
| P3 16:22 | CGY | Jonathan HuberdeauPP from Rasmus Andersson, Joel Farabee | 3–2 | 1% → 11% |
| P3 18:21 | COL | Valeri NichushkinEN from Samuel Girard | 4–2 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Kelly C | 13:00 | 2 | +1.28 | +0.05 | +1.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:00 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.15 | +0.88 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 22:08 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 25:51 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 19:12 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 17:11 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 13:12 | +0.03 | +0.22 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 11:07 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:09 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 11:20 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.24 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 19:57 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 15:48 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 24:26 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 8:52 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 16:46 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 18:26 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 15:35 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:42 | −0.44 | +0.20 | −0.62 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | +0.25 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 21:48 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.06 | +0.69 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 19:56 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.53 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 21:28 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 7:01 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 10:19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 21:50 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 22:59 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:30 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 9:00 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil Miromanov D | 12:56 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:06 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 11:48 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 13:59 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 22:10 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dryden Hunt L | 6:20 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:30 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 18:38 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 15:43 | −0.42 | −0.14 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 57:59 | −0.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.