NYR beat MIN 3–2 in overtime. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Braden Schneider scored at 1:51 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:45 | NYR | Vincent Trocheck from Will Cuylle, K'Andre Miller | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 3:55 | MIN | Marcus JohanssonPP from Gustav Nyquist, Jared Spurgeon | 1–1 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 6:38 | NYR | Jonny Brodzinski from Zac Jones, Matt Rempe | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 8:42 | MIN | Frederick GaudreauPP from Ryan Hartman, Jared Spurgeon | 2–2 | 22% → 53% |
| OT 1:51 | NYR | Braden Schneider from Artemi Panarin, J.T. Miller | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Schneider D | 21:52 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.08 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 19:29 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.68 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 8:39 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.08 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:06 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.32 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 18:17 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 16:05 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 22:33 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Berard L | 10:46 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 13:44 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 18:55 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 16:22 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Brennan Othmann L | 7:22 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 15:58 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:52 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 20:20 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.14 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Matt Rempe C | 7:14 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 19:47 | −0.40 | +0.20 | −0.58 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Zac Jones D | 21:28 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.05 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 61:51 | +0.89 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 18:39 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.17 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:59 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.08 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Devin Shore C | 6:15 | +0.29 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:27 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 29:42 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 11:27 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 6:26 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 16:40 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 6:51 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:09 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 16:09 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 24:30 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 19:02 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 23:19 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:36 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 11:04 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 17:08 | −0.42 | −0.14 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 17:10 | −0.76 | −0.01 | −0.54 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 61:51 | +0.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.