SEA beat MTL 5–4 in overtime. SEA also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brandon Montour scored at 0:04 of overtime, moving SEA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Joey Daccord allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:54 |  SEA | Brandon Montour from Jordan Eberle | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 4:47 | SEA | Eeli Tolvanen from Jordan Eberle, Chandler Stephenson | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 7:11 |  MTL | Patrik LainePP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 11:21 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Patrik Laine | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 14:04 | MTL | Juraj Slafkovský from Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 7:18 | MTL | Juraj Slafkovský from Jayden Struble, Nick Suzuki | 4–2 | 77% → 94% |
| P3 10:53 | SEA | Jani NymanPP from Jordan Eberle, Brandon Montour | 4–3 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 17:48 | SEA | Matty BeniersPP from Vince Dunn, Brandon Montour | 4–4 | 9% → 50% |
| OT 0:04 | SEA | Brandon Montour from Chandler Stephenson | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:56 | 2 | +1.54 | −0.01 | +1.38 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 10:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Newhook C | 14:50 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.48 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jake Evans C | 15:06 | +0.35 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.40 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 9:25 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 22:41 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:17 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 19:42 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 15:51 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 20:05 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 27:46 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:00 | 2 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 12:45 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 14:17 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 13:24 | −0.28 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 20:57 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Roy R | 10:38 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 12:37 | −0.73 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.59 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:04 | −1.52 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Montour D | 23:46 | 2 | 2 | +1.61 | +0.27 | +1.55 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 16:48 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.09 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 19:53 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.07 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jani Nyman R | 13:56 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.15 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:19 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 19:53 | +0.20 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 24:07 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 16:46 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 7:45 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 8:09 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Fleury D | 11:39 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:33 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 10:40 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:39 | 3 | −0.16 | +0.27 | −0.46 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryker Evans D | 16:01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 22:29 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.33 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 16:13 | −0.32 | −0.07 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 15:55 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 59:48 | −1.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.