NSH beat SJS 3–2. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kieffer Bellows scored at 6:32 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 48% to 77%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:11 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Fedor Svechkov, Nick Blankenburg | 1–0 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 15:17 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Brady Skjei | 2–0 | 71% → 87% |
| P3 3:42 | SJS | Patrick Giles from Carl Grundstrom | 2–1 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 3:56 | SJS | Collin Graf from Will Smith | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 6:32 | NSH | Kieffer Bellows from Filip Forsberg | 3–2 | 48% → 77% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 21:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.13 | +0.48 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:50 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.78 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kieffer Bellows L | 11:41 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 17:31 | +0.38 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:25 | +0.24 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.10 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 16:55 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 15:18 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 16:36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 12:03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:36 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 14:47 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:45 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 14:18 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 10:42 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 20:14 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 13:10 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 15:47 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 14:46 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.13 | −0.63 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 59:34 | +0.66 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Graf R | 15:39 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.10 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Giles R | 8:26 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.13 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jimmy Schuldt D | 17:22 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 10:42 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 10:27 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 21:17 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 13:44 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 12:15 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Eklund L | 23:02 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 22:36 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 16:53 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 10:24 | −0.18 | +0.18 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 17:46 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Klim Kostin C | 12:05 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 17:49 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:08 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.05 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:13 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 20:56 | −0.47 | +0.09 | −0.56 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 58:07 | −0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.