MIN beat COL 2–1 in a shootout. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Joel Kiviranta scored at 14:20 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 12% to 49%. Filip Gustavsson saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 11:01 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 14:20 |  COL | Joel Kiviranta from Ross Colton, Samuel Girard | 1–1 | 12% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Kiviranta L | 8:53 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 18:32 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.46 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 16:13 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 12:09 | +0.13 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 12:09 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:23 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 28:44 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.32 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 12:53 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 18:06 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 19:28 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 16:47 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 18:25 | −0.09 | +0.37 | −0.44 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 16:08 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 25:37 | −0.19 | +0.25 | −0.24 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.32 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 11:46 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 23:51 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 22:48 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:08 | −0.44 | +0.06 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 65:00 | −0.05 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:49 | 1 | +1.38 | +0.19 | +0.51 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 14:44 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 19:53 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:45 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 8:46 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 25:05 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 18:46 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:07 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 14:26 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 10:55 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 14:00 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 15:55 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 7:33 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 27:50 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 21:42 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:00 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 13:49 | −0.39 | −0.10 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 22:55 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.11 | −0.71 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.41 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 65:00 | +2.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.