OTT beat PHI 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 2.1, PHI 2.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Michael Amadio scored at 15:01 of the second, moving OTT’s win probability from 48% to 70%. Ivan Fedotov allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:24 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Claude Giroux, Tim Stützle | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 3:05 | PHI | Jamie Drysdale from Travis Konecny, Olle Lycksell | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 4:14 | OTT | Tyler Kleven from David Perron, Drake Batherson | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 8:45 | PHI | Rodrigo Abols from Cam York, Jakob Pelletier | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 15:01 | OTT | Michael Amadio from Adam Gaudette, Jake Sanderson | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
| P3 10:59 | OTT | Dylan Cozens unassisted | 4–2 | 81% → 96% |
| P3 19:25 | OTT | Shane PintoEN from Michael Amadio, Jake Sanderson | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Kleven D | 14:55 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.10 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 14:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.00 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:10 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.10 | +0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:23 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.03 | +0.39 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 14:07 | +0.22 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 20:58 | +0.16 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 13:13 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 17:47 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 16:49 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Artem Zub D | 21:30 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 16:51 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 7:26 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 23:03 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 9:55 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:05 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 10:28 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 19:19 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 20:11 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.09 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 60:00 | +0.07 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Abols C | 5:08 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 21:31 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.13 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Matvei Michkov R | 21:57 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 22:10 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cam York D | 20:35 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Pelletier L | 6:28 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 6:56 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 20:16 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 22:10 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 14:33 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 18:02 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 19:02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Olle Lycksell R | 13:11 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 16:52 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 15:49 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 16:54 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 16:23 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 21:13 | −0.59 | −0.08 | −0.52 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Fedotov G | 56:57 | −1.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.