CBJ beat NYR 7–3. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mathieu Olivier scored at 17:03 of the second, moving CBJ’s win probability from 47% to 71%. Jonathan Quick allowed 4.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:56 |  CBJ | Justin Danforth from Zach Werenski | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:31 |  NYR | Artemi Panarin from Alexis Lafrenière, Vincent Trocheck | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 3:07 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Dmitri Voronkov | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 3:33 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Dmitri Voronkov | 3–1 | 66% → 82% |
| P2 6:54 | NYR | Braden SchneiderSH from Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad | 3–2 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 7:36 | NYR | Chris KreiderSH from Mika Zibanejad | 3–3 | 32% → 52% |
| P2 17:03 | CBJ | Mathieu Olivier from Zach Werenski, Dante Fabbro | 4–3 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 18:47 | CBJ | Dante Fabbro from Sean Kuraly, James van Riemsdyk | 5–3 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 10:17 | CBJ | Kent Johnson from Mathieu Olivier, Boone Jenner | 6–3 | 96% → 99% |
| P3 11:51 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Kirill Marchenko, Damon Severson | 7–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fantilli C | 14:29 | 3 | +1.08 | +0.04 | +1.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 13:20 | 2 | +0.59 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.53 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 17:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.04 | +0.29 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Dante Fabbro D | 25:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.05 | +0.41 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zach Werenski D | 22:29 | 2 | +0.38 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.47 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 16:05 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.02 | +0.40 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 14:25 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 13:45 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.36 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 20:45 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 25:29 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 10:10 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 11:17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 15:44 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 14:18 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 12:00 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:34 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.21 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 15:14 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 14:13 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 60:00 | +0.89 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Schneider D | 21:04 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.05 | +0.71 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 17:03 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.14 | +0.42 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 21:35 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.11 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Berard L | 10:49 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.40 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 16:55 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 19:01 | 2 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.28 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.08 | |
| Will Borgen D | 17:18 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 20:47 | −0.04 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 15:36 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 13:03 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brennan Othmann L | 12:06 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Jones D | 18:19 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:18 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 12:08 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 17:36 | −0.32 | +0.05 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 12:47 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:55 | 2 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.33 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 14:16 | −0.43 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 57:24 | −4.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.