CAR beat WPG 4–2. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mark Jankowski scored at 18:05 of the first, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 71%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:05 |  CAR | Mark Jankowski from Scott Morrow | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:21 | CAR | Mark Jankowski from Jack Roslovic, Eric Robinson | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P3 2:34 | CAR | Logan StankovenPP from Shayne Gostisbehere, Sebastian Aho | 0–3 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 17:14 |  WPG | Alex IafalloPP unassisted | 1–3 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 17:58 | CAR | Seth JarvisEN from Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:08 | WPG | Adam Lowry unassisted | 2–4 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Lowry C | 18:05 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.00 | +0.82 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 13:43 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.05 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:00 | +0.36 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 10:02 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 9:38 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 11:37 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 23:31 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:51 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 11:18 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 25:35 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:19 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 12:42 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 9:24 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 9:06 | −0.28 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 19:44 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 13:14 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 19:48 | −0.44 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 22:06 | −0.73 | −0.09 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 58:14 | −0.18 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Jankowski L | 9:06 | 2 | +1.55 | +0.01 | +1.56 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:53 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.09 | +0.55 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brent Burns D | 23:43 | +0.30 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:31 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:51 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:57 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 19:33 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Morrow D | 12:27 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 9:13 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:47 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 11:45 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 17:20 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 15:31 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 16:01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:11 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 12:41 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 22:44 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.12 | −0.67 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 17:46 | −0.56 | +0.01 | −0.56 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | −0.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.