NSH beat CHI 3–2 in overtime. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Steven Stamkos scored at 2:39 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Arvid Soderblom saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:56 | CHI | Alex Vlasic from Connor Bedard, Colton Dach | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 2:36 |  NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Jonathan Marchessault, Nick Blankenburg | 1–1 | 34% → 54% |
| P2 12:20 | NSH | Steven Stamkos from Ryan O'Reilly | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 12:22 | CHI | Ilya Mikheyev from Ryan Donato, Connor Murphy | 2–2 | 15% → 49% |
| OT 2:39 | NSH | Steven Stamkos from Fedor Svechkov, Spencer Stastney | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Vlasic D | 25:15 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.17 | +0.81 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:04 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.02 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Nazar C | 19:42 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 17:21 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 21:01 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Landon Slaggert L | 11:18 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 21:24 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 16:58 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 19:45 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Louis Crevier D | 17:01 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 14:16 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 11:01 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 10:16 | −0.30 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 13:07 | −0.37 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 11:23 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 19:32 | −0.45 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 12:48 | −0.54 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 22:30 | 1 | −0.67 | −0.20 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 62:39 | +1.19 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:43 | 3 | +2.31 | +0.22 | +2.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 14:50 | +0.35 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.07 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 19:05 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 17:41 | +0.24 | +0.29 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:37 | +0.10 | +0.29 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 15:29 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 12:12 | +0.05 | +0.24 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 16:27 | +0.04 | +0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 18:34 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 15:58 | −0.03 | +0.29 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kieffer Bellows L | 9:49 | −0.07 | +0.21 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 17:49 | −0.13 | +0.30 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 12:47 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:25 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 14:54 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.21 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 18:29 | −0.26 | +0.22 | −0.49 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:00 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 20:08 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.11 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 62:39 | +0.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.