CHI beat UTA 4–3 in overtime. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Connor Bedard scored at 3:10 of overtime, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Spencer Knight saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:56 |  UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 9:23 | CHI | Wyatt Kaiser from Connor Bedard | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 12:50 | CHI | Ilya Mikheyev from Ryan Donato | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 14:30 | CHI | Frank NazarPP unassisted | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 5:04 | UTA | John Marino from Mikhail Sergachev | 2–3 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 12:16 | UTA | Clayton KellerPP from Mikhail Sergachev, Barrett Hayton | 3–3 | 16% → 49% |
| OT 3:10 | CHI | Connor Bedard from Ethan Del Mastro, Teuvo Teravainen | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Marino D | 24:15 | 1 | +1.34 | +0.22 | +0.93 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:52 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.23 | +0.43 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 22:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ian Cole D | 18:22 | +0.17 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 27:03 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.22 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 10:50 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 9:34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 12:30 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 5:20 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 13:32 | −0.12 | +0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 17:39 | −0.16 | +0.21 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 18:58 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 22:28 | −0.18 | +0.32 | −0.67 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 14:08 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:06 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 18:37 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 18:14 | −0.37 | −0.24 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 19:34 | 1 | −0.69 | +0.50 | −1.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 63:10 | −1.29 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 17:48 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Nazar C | 17:31 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.11 | +0.54 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 19:09 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.28 | +0.82 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 23:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.22 | +0.23 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:36 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 6:07 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 18:37 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 10:07 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 23:28 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 15:31 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 10:27 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 22:16 | −0.16 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 13:16 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 23:22 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 18:32 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 18:44 | −0.44 | −0.36 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 15:58 | −0.53 | −0.20 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 15:11 | −0.57 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 63:10 | +1.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.