DAL beat NJD 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 3.0, DAL 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Thomas Harley scored at 19:55 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:39 |  DAL | Wyatt Johnston unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 6:30 | DAL | Ilya Lyubushkin from Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 7:09 |  NJD | Timo MeierPP from Nico Hischier, Luke Hughes | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 19:46 | DAL | Roope HintzPP from Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley | 1–3 | 82% → 92% |
| P3 12:18 | NJD | Nico HischierPP from Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 2–3 | 3% → 15% |
| P3 15:52 | NJD | Brett PescePP from Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
| P3 19:55 | DAL | Thomas Harley from Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz | 3–4 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Pesce D | 24:27 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.25 | +0.63 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 17:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.14 | +0.58 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Nico Hischier C | 20:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.11 | +0.54 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:29 | +0.16 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 9:51 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.05 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 17:20 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:45 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.21 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 11:27 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 5:15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 9:50 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 12:17 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 25:49 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 23:40 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 12:53 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 15:18 | −0.25 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 23:17 | −0.28 | +0.12 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 10:04 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:45 | −0.49 | +0.11 | −0.57 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:33 | −1.32 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 17:14 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.16 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 25:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.15 | +0.79 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 18:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.11 | +0.42 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Matt Duchene C | 17:08 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 18:00 | 1 | 2 | +0.17 | −0.11 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 |
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:23 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 14:35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 13:53 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 21:25 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 19:14 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 13:52 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 13:14 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 12:09 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 20:11 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Lian Bichsel D | 13:47 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 12:14 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:17 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.05 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 16:11 | −0.47 | −0.19 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:00 | −0.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.