SJS beat TOR 3–2 in a shootout. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tyler Toffoli scored at 10:10 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 17% to 48%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:28 | TOR | John TavaresPP from Mitch Marner, William Nylander | 0–1 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 19:55 | TOR | Matthew KniesPP from Auston Matthews, John Tavares | 0–2 | 78% → 92% |
| P3 2:23 | SJS | Jack Thompson from Alexander Wennberg, William Eklund | 1–2 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 10:10 | SJS | Tyler Toffoli from Alexander Wennberg, Shakir Mukhamadullin | 2–2 | 17% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:42 | 1 | +1.71 | +0.21 | +0.69 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 14:39 | +1.18 | +0.23 | −0.28 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Jack Thompson D | 13:09 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.05 | +0.89 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 22:25 | +0.26 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:01 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 15:12 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 21:28 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:52 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 20:39 | −0.07 | +0.36 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.32 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 27:38 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 10:45 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 14:12 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 8:13 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 11:24 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 25:59 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:56 | −0.37 | −0.11 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 19:36 | −0.69 | +0.34 | −0.65 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 16:30 | −0.76 | −0.16 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 65:00 | +1.79 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 23:43 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.40 | −0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| John Tavares C | 21:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.19 | +0.73 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.49 |
| Jake McCabe D | 22:05 | +0.30 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 10:34 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 23:53 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 14:42 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 18:04 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 13:43 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 14:24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 8:23 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 11:21 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 27:29 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.18 | −0.15 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 7:09 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:55 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 23:03 | −0.31 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 13:19 | −0.57 | −0.26 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:42 | −0.60 | −0.51 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 25:55 | 1 | −0.86 | +0.14 | −0.72 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 65:00 | −0.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.