MTL beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 5.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mike Matheson scored at 1:21 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Samuel Montembeault saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:42 |  MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 11:41 | MTL | Nick SuzukiSH from Mike Matheson | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 13:42 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 0–3 | 84% → 92% |
| P2 18:07 |  BUF | Alex Tuch from Dylan Cozens, Dennis Gilbert | 1–3 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 3:24 | BUF | Tage Thompson from JJ Peterka, Jacob Bryson | 2–3 | 7% → 21% |
| P3 18:59 | BUF | Rasmus DahlinPP from JJ Peterka, Jiri Kulich | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 1:21 | MTL | Mike Matheson from Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 18:36 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.43 | +0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jiri Kulich C | 15:13 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.56 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 21:42 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.37 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:34 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 24:59 | +0.27 | +0.56 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 14:45 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:04 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 20:22 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.61 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Gilbert D | 11:40 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 16:11 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 13:08 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 11:14 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 9:46 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 17:05 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 14:16 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 21:10 | −0.30 | +0.08 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 11:31 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:19 | 1 | −0.65 | +0.02 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:24 | −1.13 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Matheson D | 28:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.39 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Cole Caufield R | 17:44 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.06 | +0.56 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.12 | +0.44 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake Evans C | 16:33 | +0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.40 | +0.08 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 12:56 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 19:11 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Beck C | 7:49 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:51 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 13:20 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 13:03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:11 | 1 | 3 | −0.13 | −0.37 | +0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Jayden Struble D | 15:18 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 17:05 | −0.24 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:28 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:48 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.04 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 18:51 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 13:08 | −0.51 | −0.10 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 13:14 | −0.74 | −0.04 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 61:03 | +1.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.