CBJ beat DET 5–3. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Justin Danforth scored at 17:43 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 50% to 93%. Elvis Merzlikins saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:31 | CBJ | Denton Mateychuk from Boone Jenner, James van Riemsdyk | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 13:06 |  DET | Alex DeBrincatPP from Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 17:23 | CBJ | Dmitri VoronkovPP from Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 17:55 | CBJ | Mathieu Olivier from Justin Danforth | 1–3 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 3:34 | DET | Patrick Kane from Simon Edvinsson, Albert Johansson | 2–3 | 7% → 21% |
| P3 16:36 | DET | Alex DeBrincat from Erik Gustafsson, Patrick Kane | 3–3 | 9% → 49% |
| P3 17:43 | CBJ | Justin Danforth from Zachary Aston-Reese, Ivan Provorov | 3–4 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 18:52 | CBJ | Adam FantilliEN from Zach Werenski, Boone Jenner | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 21:11 | 2 | +0.64 | −0.12 | +0.61 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 20:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.37 | −0.12 | +0.27 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 15:57 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.25 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 19:19 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 20:36 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 14:14 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 5:09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 19:37 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 10:51 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 9:30 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 6:06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:58 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 13:23 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:44 | −0.16 | +0.15 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:53 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 21:29 | −0.20 | +0.19 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 25:06 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 19:06 | −0.47 | −0.18 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 59:27 | −1.52 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denton Mateychuk D | 17:46 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.17 | +0.42 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 14:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.17 | +0.20 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:51 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.15 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:33 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.22 | −0.09 | +0.20 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 17:57 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.02 | +0.23 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 20:44 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 14:08 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 13:49 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 12:34 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 17:51 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:25 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joseph LaBate C | 10:24 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 12:24 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 15:03 | 2 | −0.17 | −0.28 | −0.05 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:43 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 29:53 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 12:25 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 25:20 | −0.46 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:00 | +1.71 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.