STL beat WSH 5–2. STL also won the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dylan Holloway scored at 17:23 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 47% to 71%. Charlie Lindgren allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:14 |  STL | Philip Broberg from Mathieu Joseph | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:04 |  WSH | Pierre-Luc Dubois from Taylor Raddysh, Connor McMichael | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 17:45 | STL | Philip Broberg from Jake Neighbours, Pavel Buchnevich | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 16:55 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Matt Roy, Ethen Frank | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 17:23 | STL | Dylan Holloway from Ryan Suter, Brayden Schenn | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 17:58 | STL | Colton Parayko from Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas | 4–2 | 72% → 88% |
| P3 18:05 | STL | Jake NeighboursEN from Brayden Schenn, Radek Faksa | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Broberg D | 21:24 | 2 | +1.63 | −0.03 | +1.63 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 19:13 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.21 | +0.55 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 15:52 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.03 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 20:49 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 17:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 11:07 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 19:10 | +0.10 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 13:15 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:39 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 19:06 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 18:05 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 12:42 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:51 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:43 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 12:48 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 14:07 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:21 | 2 | −0.61 | +0.11 | −0.56 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 60:00 | −0.59 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McMichael L | 18:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.06 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 20:02 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| John Carlson D | 23:21 | +0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:39 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethen Frank R | 13:14 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 17:18 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 9:22 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 16:45 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 21:22 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 16:12 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 19:24 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 14:39 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 13:53 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 11:31 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 14:30 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 11:38 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 18:25 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:44 | −0.51 | −0.16 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 58:36 | −1.66 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.