DET beat MIN 3–2. DET lost the expected-goals battle 1.4 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Simon Edvinsson scored at 11:35 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 82%. Filip Gustavsson allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:17 | MIN | Marco RossiPP from Matt Boldy, Jared Spurgeon | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 11:11 | MIN | Jakub Lauko from Devin Shore, Yakov Trenin | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 10:12 | DET | Vladimir Tarasenko from Erik Gustafsson, Marco Kasper | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 13:12 | DET | Simon Edvinsson from Alex DeBrincat, J.T. Compher | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 11:35 | DET | Simon Edvinsson from Albert Johansson, Elmer Soderblom | 3–2 | 48% → 82% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Edvinsson D | 21:58 | 2 | +1.56 | −0.01 | +1.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:13 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.11 | +0.79 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 8:10 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 18:46 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:26 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 12:16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 18:13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 24:59 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 8:03 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 15:32 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 14:39 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 13:37 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 19:06 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 22:36 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 21:32 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 9:24 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 16:36 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 14:33 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 60:00 | +0.02 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Lauko C | 9:33 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.07 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 21:34 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 13:26 | +0.30 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:09 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Chisholm D | 14:17 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 10:40 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:08 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 9:48 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 11:12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 11:57 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 17:49 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 17:00 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 20:07 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 15:40 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:52 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 26:40 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:12 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 21:02 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.50 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 57:54 | −1.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.