NYR beat NYI 5–1. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jonny Brodzinski scored at 12:39 of the first, moving NYR’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 3.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:22 | NYR | Urho Vaakanainen from Reilly Smith | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:19 |  NYI | Alexander Romanov from Tony DeAngelo, Brock Nelson | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 12:39 | NYR | Jonny Brodzinski from Braden Schneider, Urho Vaakanainen | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 19:12 | NYR | Jonny Brodzinski from Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren | 3–1 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 11:21 | NYR | J.T. Miller from Mika Zibanejad, Urho Vaakanainen | 4–1 | 85% → 95% |
| P2 16:30 | NYR | Matt Rempe from Jonny Brodzinski, Ryan Lindgren | 5–1 | 97% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 13:14 | 2 | 1 | +1.76 | −0.03 | +1.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 20:57 | 1 | 2 | +0.89 | +0.02 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matt Rempe C | 11:30 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 15:47 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.07 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 24:13 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 16:03 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brennan Othmann L | 12:02 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 17:05 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:57 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 17:00 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 10:13 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 14:18 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 14:13 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 23:37 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 21:09 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 17:48 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 14:35 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 18:19 | −0.42 | −0.07 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +2.55 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:17 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.09 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 11:44 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 16:25 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:34 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 16:37 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 17:45 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 13:07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 18:01 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 21:32 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Gatcomb C | 12:17 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:48 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:35 | −0.19 | +0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:43 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 13:00 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:13 | −0.26 | +0.09 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 20:46 | −0.27 | +0.16 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:09 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 18:03 | −0.33 | +0.13 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Skarek G | 19:24 | +0.68 |
| Ilya Sorokin G | 40:00 | −3.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.