TOR beat BOS 5–4 in overtime. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 4.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mitch Marner scored at 4:08 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jeremy Swayman allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:29 |  BOS | David Pastrnak from Mason Lohrei, Pavel Zacha | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:59 | BOS | Brad MarchandPP from David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 10:00 | BOS | Morgan GeekiePP from Elias Lindholm, Brad Marchand | 0–3 | 89% → 96% |
| P2 13:52 |  TOR | Morgan Rielly from Matthew Knies, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 1–3 | 3% → 10% |
| P3 0:59 | TOR | Mitch MarnerPP from John Tavares, Morgan Rielly | 2–3 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 6:40 | TOR | Nicholas Robertson from Morgan Rielly, Anthony Stolarz | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 10:33 | BOS | David Pastrnak unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 19:14 | TOR | Pontus HolmbergPP from Nicholas Robertson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 4–4 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 4:08 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 25:41 | 2 | +1.46 | −0.16 | +1.37 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 27:42 | 1 | 3 | +0.83 | +0.03 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 12:56 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.04 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.65 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 27:25 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 11:22 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Steeves C | 5:41 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 0:49 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 12:58 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 16:52 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 21:21 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 17:24 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 11:03 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Tavares C | 20:55 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 25:17 | −0.27 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 14:41 | −0.34 | +0.13 | −0.35 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 17:21 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 22:41 | 1 | −0.80 | −0.25 | −0.55 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 62:52 | +0.60 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 25:39 | 2 | 1 | +1.11 | −0.07 | +1.10 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brad Marchand L | 23:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.31 | +0.32 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Matthew Poitras C | 13:54 | +0.37 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.40 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 10:43 | +0.23 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:23 | +0.15 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 21:12 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 5:18 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 21:42 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 20:19 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 20:53 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 21:44 | −0.19 | +0.13 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Callahan D | 12:01 | −0.23 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 22:25 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 7:39 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| John Beecher C | 7:30 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 5:45 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 23:00 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.25 | −0.82 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 22:05 | 2 | −0.90 | −0.03 | −0.67 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 64:08 | −1.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.