LAK beat VGK 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (VGK 2.0, LAK 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Warren Foegele scored at 8:31 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 53% to 82%. Ilya Samsonov allowed 3.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:30 | LAK | Trevor MoorePP from Quinton Byfield, Jordan Spence | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 10:26 | VGK | Brayden McNabb from Tomas Hertl, Kaedan Korczak | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 16:41 | VGK | Mark Stone from Noah Hanifin, Brett Howden | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 0:42 | LAK | Trevor Moore from Warren Foegele, Darcy Kuemper | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 8:31 | LAK | Warren Foegele from Quinton Byfield | 2–3 | 53% → 82% |
| P3 15:28 | LAK | Joel Edmundson from Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield | 2–4 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 17:41 | LAK | Kevin Fiala from Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:34 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.06 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:16 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:12 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.14 | +0.44 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Raphael Lavoie C | 12:19 | +0.21 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 14:40 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 16:45 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 11:57 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 11:34 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 14:24 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 23:24 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 21:05 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 16:48 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 17:12 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 15:04 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:20 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 17:31 | −0.36 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 12:17 | −0.36 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 59:43 | −3.50 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Foegele L | 15:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.21 | +0.35 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Trevor Moore L | 15:53 | 2 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 20:56 | 2 | +0.51 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 22:31 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.00 | +0.47 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 21:52 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.07 | +0.41 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 9:32 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Turcotte C | 7:54 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:17 | +0.16 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 8:13 | +0.14 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 19:20 | +0.12 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 20:28 | 4 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.62 | +0.02 | −0.40 | −0.04 | |
| Jacob Moverare D | 12:42 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 18:27 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 10:19 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 10:16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 18:07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 23:55 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 19:57 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 60:00 | +0.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.