CGY beat SJS 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (SJS 3.1, CGY 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Joel Hanley scored at 13:28 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 51% to 86%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:41 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Tyler Toffoli, Jake Walman | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:27 | CGY | Nazem KadriPP from Morgan Frost, MacKenzie Weegar | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 3:35 | CGY | Kevin Rooney from Ryan Lomberg, Martin Pospisil | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 1:54 | SJS | Tyler Toffoli from William Eklund, Shakir Mukhamadullin | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 13:28 | CGY | Joel Hanley from Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri | 2–3 | 51% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.16 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 20:11 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.02 | +0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 13:02 | +0.17 | +0.11 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:59 | +0.16 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 26:44 | +0.09 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 9:26 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.05 | ||
| Walker Duehr R | 8:09 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 13:27 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:18 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack Thompson D | 17:35 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 11:21 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 18:11 | −0.20 | +0.13 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 11:50 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.04 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 26:11 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Collin Graf R | 16:14 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 16:07 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 18:54 | −0.38 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 18:41 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 59:04 | +0.94 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Hanley D | 17:08 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.23 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 22:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.06 | +0.27 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.05 |
| Kevin Rooney C | 9:32 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.01 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 23:19 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 14:28 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 8:53 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brayden Pachal D | 12:48 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Solovyov D | 19:24 | −0.09 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:29 | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 12:37 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 9:19 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 17:03 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 8:17 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 15:46 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:47 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 18:41 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 24:02 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.29 | −0.54 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Zary C | 16:05 | −0.51 | −0.08 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 60:00 | +0.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.