NYR beat PIT 5–3. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 1.5 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adam Fox scored at 11:26 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 82%. Joel Blomqvist allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:53 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Cody Glass, Danton Heinen | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 19:12 |  NYR | Will CuyllePP from K'Andre Miller, Reilly Smith | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 17:00 | NYR | J.T. Miller from Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 0:57 | PIT | Ryan Shea from Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 3:31 | PIT | Ryan Shea from Sidney Crosby, Kevin Hayes | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 4:21 | NYR | Jimmy Vesey from Vincent Trocheck, Ryan Lindgren | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 11:26 | NYR | Adam Fox from Reilly Smith, Mika Zibanejad | 4–3 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 19:53 | NYR | J.T. MillerEN from Jimmy Vesey, Ryan Lindgren | 5–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fox D | 20:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.04 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| J.T. Miller C | 16:56 | 2 | +0.65 | −0.19 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 18:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.29 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Will Cuylle L | 14:17 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.15 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 10:38 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 6:52 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 15:56 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 13:52 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 17:18 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 12:05 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 17:22 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:24 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 22:14 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 14:19 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.18 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 14:29 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 15:51 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:17 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.34 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Will Borgen D | 19:46 | −0.58 | −0.56 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +1.34 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Shea D | 20:37 | 2 | +1.96 | +0.19 | +1.76 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 16:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.08 | +0.79 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Rickard Rakell R | 21:38 | +0.40 | +0.49 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:54 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.31 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 5:00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 23:41 | +0.17 | +0.47 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 14:51 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.38 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 15:24 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:08 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.54 | −0.60 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 21:02 | +0.04 | +0.20 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 12:47 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 12:20 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 16:27 | −0.07 | +0.36 | −0.63 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 15:54 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.15 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 14:34 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 10:41 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 12:29 | −0.33 | +0.07 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 15:18 | −0.66 | +0.09 | −0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Blomqvist G | 58:25 | −2.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.