WPG beat STL 4–3 in a shootout. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Gabriel Vilardi scored on the power play at 19:32 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 2% to 49%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:58 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers from Cole Perfetti, Vladislav Namestnikov | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:34 | STL | Robert Thomas from Pavel Buchnevich | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 11:01 | WPG | Gabriel Vilardi from Mark Scheifele, Colin Miller | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 0:16 | STL | Robert Thomas from Pavel Buchnevich, Cam Fowler | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 17:10 | STL | Pavel BuchnevichPP from Robert Thomas, Oskar Sundqvist | 2–3 | 52% → 93% |
| P3 19:32 | WPG | Gabriel VilardiPP from Kyle Connor, Cole Perfetti | 3–3 | 2% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 15:57 | 2 | +1.59 | +0.06 | +1.52 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:51 | +0.28 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:38 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.39 | +0.67 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 14:22 | +0.28 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 9:06 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 8:53 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:06 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 23:16 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Heinola D | 12:16 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 9:45 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 26:40 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 17:05 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.41 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 13:55 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 13:41 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 17:11 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:55 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.32 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 22:35 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.13 | −1.39 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.78 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 24:23 | −0.98 | −0.30 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.59 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 64:47 | +0.56 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas C | 21:36 | 2 | 1 | +1.67 | +0.17 | +1.63 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.32 |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 21:53 | 1 | 2 | +0.51 | +0.31 | +0.54 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.39 |
| Cam Fowler D | 21:02 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 17:11 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 13:47 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 24:04 | +0.04 | +0.36 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:00 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:46 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 10:13 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 21:20 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 22:41 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 10:46 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 13:01 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 14:59 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 16:19 | −0.21 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:56 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:32 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.33 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 14:02 | −0.46 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.03 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 64:52 | −0.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.