CBJ beat CHI 5–1. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kent Johnson scored at 4:10 of the first, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Petr Mrazek allowed 3.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:10 | CBJ | Kent Johnson from Cole Sillinger, Zach Werenski | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 1:12 | CBJ | Kent JohnsonPP from Zach Werenski, Dmitri Voronkov | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 4:53 |  CHI | Craig SmithPP from Alex Vlasic, Frank Nazar | 1–2 | 14% → 27% |
| P2 12:42 | CBJ | Denton Mateychuk unassisted | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P3 13:51 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Boone Jenner, Cole Sillinger | 1–4 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 14:44 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Vlasic D | 21:17 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 13:08 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.02 | +0.29 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Nazar C | 15:08 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 16:07 | +0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 19:28 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 14:55 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 16:01 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 14:13 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 15:04 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 20:04 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 14:52 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 20:43 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 11:59 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:29 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 11:17 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 23:12 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 19:53 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 13:55 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 59:43 | −3.11 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Johnson C | 16:32 | 2 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.85 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 23:11 | 1 | 2 | +0.71 | +0.09 | +0.33 | +0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Joseph LaBate C | 7:19 | +0.32 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 21:32 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.33 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 16:15 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.02 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:17 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 16:56 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 12:36 | +0.12 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 17:08 | 2 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.28 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.06 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 9:03 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 13:44 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 21:44 | −0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:32 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 16:00 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 15:20 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 14:10 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 16:24 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 22:41 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:00 | +2.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.