ANA beat BOS 3–2 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Leo Carlsson scored at 3:39 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:27 |  ANA | Trevor Zegras from Jackson LaCombe, Leo Carlsson | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 19:22 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Radko Gudas, Jackson LaCombe | 2–0 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 9:08 | BOS | Elias LindholmPP from David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei | 2–1 | 19% → 33% |
| P3 18:49 | BOS | Morgan GeekiePP from Mason Lohrei, Brad Marchand | 2–2 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:39 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Brian Dumoulin, Troy Terry | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson C | 15:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.09 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Frank Vatrano R | 18:48 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.07 | +0.62 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 19:08 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.04 | +0.36 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 16:46 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 22:14 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.29 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 19:10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 15:49 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:51 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 25:43 | 2 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 18:53 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 17:30 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 9:13 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 6:42 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 16:10 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 20:44 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 13:38 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 15:41 | −0.34 | +0.09 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 17:11 | −0.40 | −0.07 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 40:00 | +0.92 |
| Lukas Dostal G | 23:39 | −0.06 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:55 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 19:42 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.24 | +0.45 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 22:25 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.26 | −0.13 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 22:50 | +0.23 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 25:18 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 8:33 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:42 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 20:13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Tufte L | 8:15 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Beecher C | 9:31 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 12:54 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 18:37 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Callahan D | 10:43 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 13:24 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 19:07 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.47 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 19:11 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 22:57 | 2 | −0.44 | +0.12 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Poitras C | 15:28 | −0.48 | −0.17 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 62:51 | −0.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.