DAL beat NJD 4–2. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Evgenii Dadonov scored at 3:58 of the first, moving DAL’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Casey DeSmith saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:58 |  DAL | Evgenii Dadonov from Mathew Dumba, Mavrik Bourque | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 5:44 | DAL | Thomas HarleyPP from Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P3 10:00 | NJD | Jack HughesPP from Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Bratt | 2–1 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 10:35 | DAL | Matt Duchene from Jamie Benn | 3–1 | 81% → 96% |
| P3 11:40 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton | 3–2 | 3% → 18% |
| P3 19:51 | DAL | Wyatt JohnstonEN unassisted | 4–2 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 12:33 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.07 | +0.62 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 16:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.06 | +0.46 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Lian Bichsel D | 16:25 | +0.32 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 24:22 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.14 | +0.61 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 14:45 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 12:27 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 11:14 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 15:14 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 15:02 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:54 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 16:18 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 14:44 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sam Steel C | 13:59 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 22:13 | −0.26 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 19:53 | −0.38 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 17:52 | 1 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.16 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Jason Robertson L | 14:45 | −0.67 | −0.08 | −0.60 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 19:07 | −0.71 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:00 | +1.96 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes C | 24:53 | 2 | +1.49 | +0.32 | +1.16 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 20:15 | +0.40 | +0.20 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.09 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 18:09 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:18 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 18:32 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 19:12 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 8:18 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 22:46 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 8:26 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 12:13 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 9:30 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 15:59 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 13:24 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 19:46 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:04 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 12:55 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:06 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.39 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:58 | 2 | −0.65 | +0.27 | −0.94 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 59:01 | −0.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.