UTA beat WSH 5–4 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (UTA 2.9, WSH 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tom Wilson scored on the power play at 18:29 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Logan Thompson allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:10 |  UTA | Josh Doan from Jack McBain, Connor Ingram | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 1:42 | UTA | Michael Carcone from Dylan Guenther, Nick DeSimone | 2–0 | 62% → 75% |
| P1 3:47 |  WSH | Tom WilsonPP from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Dylan Strome | 2–1 | 25% → 37% |
| P1 7:07 | UTA | Jack McBain from Michael Kesselring, Josh Doan | 3–1 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 12:38 | WSH | Pierre-Luc DuboisPP from Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin | 3–2 | 23% → 36% |
| P2 2:47 | UTA | Dylan GuentherPP from Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev | 4–2 | 67% → 81% |
| P3 4:49 | WSH | Dylan Strome from Alex Ovechkin, Connor McMichael | 4–3 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 18:29 | WSH | Tom WilsonPP from Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson | 4–4 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carcone L | 12:07 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.10 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 14:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.03 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 |
| Jack McBain C | 14:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.03 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 |
| Dylan Guenther R | 18:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.06 | +0.57 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:36 | +0.38 | −0.21 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.66 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 17:59 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 12:53 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 15:39 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:51 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 20:57 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 14:57 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 17:40 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 25:50 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 13:08 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:09 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.11 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:48 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:01 | −0.38 | −0.14 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 18:21 | −0.40 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 52:22 | +1.57 |
| Connor Ingram G | 12:38 | −1.04 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Wilson R | 20:46 | 2 | 1 | +1.59 | +0.13 | +1.43 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Dylan Strome C | 18:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.24 | +0.59 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.33 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 19:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.17 | +0.49 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.32 |
| Ethen Frank R | 11:42 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 14:56 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:23 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 27:08 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Roy D | 19:28 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 17:18 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 14:43 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 18:31 | 3 | −0.15 | +0.20 | −0.38 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 11:59 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:14 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 11:41 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 13:15 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 16:26 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 21:52 | −0.43 | −0.06 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.29 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 26:19 | −0.48 | +0.19 | −0.66 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 64:31 | −2.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.