NYR beat CBJ 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.6, CBJ 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Will Cuylle scored at 18:21 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:56 | NYR | Arthur Kaliyev from Ryan Lindgren, Mika Zibanejad | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 14:31 | CBJ | Kent Johnson from Zach Werenski, Adam Fantilli | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 15:29 | CBJ | Justin Danforth from Jack Johnson, Zachary Aston-Reese | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 6:38 | NYR | Mika Zibanejad from Adam Fox, Chris Kreider | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 17:17 | CBJ | James van Riemsdyk from Damon Severson, Cole Sillinger | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 1:57 | NYR | Urho Vaakanainen from Will Cuylle, Vincent Trocheck | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 18:21 | NYR | Will Cuylle from Vincent Trocheck | 4–3 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Zibanejad C | 17:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.02 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 15:37 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.07 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 15:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.03 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 13:15 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.12 | +0.72 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 16:14 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 10:29 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 23:26 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 22:40 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 10:04 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 16:01 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:54 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 17:46 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 18:41 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 7:28 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 20:03 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 18:15 | 2 | −0.32 | +0.08 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 17:33 | −0.43 | −0.09 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 22:11 | −0.50 | −0.18 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 60:00 | +0.21 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Danforth R | 17:43 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.12 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 22:24 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.11 | +0.89 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 10:00 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.04 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 18:49 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 9:27 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:21 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 28:47 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 17:47 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 2:02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 28:25 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 10:25 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 14:03 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 21:39 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:34 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Del Bel Belluz C | 11:14 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 12:38 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 26:59 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 20:06 | −0.88 | +0.10 | −1.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 58:37 | −1.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.