PHI beat PIT 3–2. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Garnet Hathaway scored at 12:26 of the second, moving PHI’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Samuel Ersson saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:44 |  PHI | Scott Laughton from Travis Konecny, Andrei Kuzmenko | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 4:19 | PIT | Erik Karlsson from Matt Grzelcyk, Rickard Rakell | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 12:26 | PHI | Garnet Hathaway unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 4:27 | PHI | Travis KonecnyPP from Cam York, Travis Sanheim | 1–3 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 5:42 | PIT | Anthony Beauvillier from Kevin Hayes, Danton Heinen | 2–3 | 6% → 20% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danton Heinen L | 15:28 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.44 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:03 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.03 | +0.42 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 20:00 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 13:02 | +0.22 | +0.19 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 16:22 | +0.19 | +0.27 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 16:42 | +0.16 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 19:15 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.13 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 17:41 | +0.01 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 20:16 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.15 | −0.28 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 11:35 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:28 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Philip Tomasino C | 12:44 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 13:30 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Vasily Ponomarev C | 9:16 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 18:41 | −0.16 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 11:48 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 23:16 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 14:35 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Blomqvist G | 58:18 | −1.44 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Konecny R | 20:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.12 | +0.76 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:52 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.13 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 16:33 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.05 | +0.32 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Emil Andrae D | 16:57 | +0.21 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Gaucher C | 6:53 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 5:14 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 12:15 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 13:54 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 17:28 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rodrigo Abols C | 11:48 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 18:53 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 19:27 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 19:07 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 21:11 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Cates L | 18:03 | −0.34 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 18:20 | −0.36 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 26:15 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.37 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 23:00 | −0.44 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 59:48 | +1.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.