WSH beat PHI 4–3. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jakob Chychrun scored at 12:05 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 49% to 82%. Ivan Fedotov allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:31 | PHI | Matvei Michkov from Travis Sanheim | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:07 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Martin Fehérváry, Dylan Strome | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:17 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Aliaksei Protas, Jakob Chychrun | 2–1 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 7:23 | PHI | Tyson FoersterPP from Emil Andrae, Travis Konecny | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 11:19 | PHI | Matvei Michkov from Rodrigo Abols, Jamie Drysdale | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 6:23 | WSH | Lars Eller from Taylor Raddysh | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 12:05 | WSH | Jakob Chychrun from John Carlson, Taylor Raddysh | 4–3 | 49% → 82% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller C | 11:52 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.13 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 14:49 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.16 | +0.79 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 21:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.14 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 18:21 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.15 | +0.61 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 10:32 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 16:49 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Roy D | 21:01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethen Frank R | 11:00 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 14:46 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 15:29 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 15:50 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 13:28 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 22:45 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 15:21 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 18:21 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.18 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 18:51 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:20 | −0.45 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 17:08 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.13 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:00 | +0.20 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matvei Michkov R | 19:32 | 2 | +1.26 | +0.14 | +0.91 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Tyson Foerster R | 20:13 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.15 | +0.57 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Richard C | 13:45 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Gaucher C | 7:52 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 18:14 | +0.07 | +0.27 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 17:31 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 18:56 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 25:15 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam York D | 21:49 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 15:27 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 20:38 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Andrae D | 20:32 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.23 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 18:13 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rodrigo Abols C | 13:22 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 9:48 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 15:47 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:26 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 12:38 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Fedotov G | 58:02 | −1.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.