EDM beat CHI 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 3.1, CHI 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Zach Hyman scored on the power play at 1:36 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 50% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:51 | EDM | Viktor Arvidsson from Mattias Janmark, Brett Kulak | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 19:54 | CHI | Lukas Reichel from Teuvo Teravainen, Ilya Mikheyev | 1–1 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 1:11 | EDM | Jeff Skinner from Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin | 2–1 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 8:18 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Jeff Skinner | 3–1 | 78% → 94% |
| P3 12:12 | CHI | Ryan DonatoPP from Teuvo Teravainen, Connor Bedard | 3–2 | 3% → 17% |
| P3 16:16 | CHI | Alec Martinez from Ryan Donato | 3–3 | 11% → 51% |
| OT 1:36 | EDM | Zach HymanPP from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:22 | 1 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.10 | +0.68 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.06 |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 16:06 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.57 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 19:06 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.03 | +0.51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.44 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Connor McDavid C | 21:46 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| John Klingberg D | 17:01 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 16:00 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:13 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 15:17 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 10:11 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 14:51 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 24:10 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.12 | −0.46 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 13:13 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 9:46 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 15:48 | −0.20 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 13:32 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:56 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:14 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 61:36 | −0.02 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Martinez D | 21:01 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.77 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 13:36 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 17:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.07 | +0.47 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Connor Murphy D | 21:32 | +0.11 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 25:17 | +0.09 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:51 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 14:13 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 13:29 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 11:02 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 13:46 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 7:05 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:58 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.25 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Nazar C | 16:48 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 16:33 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 14:59 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:31 | −0.40 | −0.06 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 25:05 | −0.42 | −0.16 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 20:58 | 1 | −0.65 | +0.05 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.40 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 61:19 | −0.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.