UTA beat PHI 3–2 in overtime. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 4.5 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dylan Guenther scored at 4:59 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Samuel Ersson saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:02 |  PHI | Rodrigo Abols from Travis Sanheim | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 3:32 |  UTA | Mikhail Sergachev from Dylan Guenther, Barrett Hayton | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 4:29 | PHI | Tyson Foerster from Sean Couturier, Bobby Brink | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 8:40 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Barrett Hayton, Mikhail Sergachev | 2–2 | 21% → 52% |
| OT 4:59 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Mikhail Sergachev, Clayton Keller | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Abols C | 8:30 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.12 | +0.38 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tyson Foerster R | 19:59 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.30 | +0.41 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 15:04 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 16:45 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 5:59 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Richard C | 12:31 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 12:48 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Gaucher C | 6:29 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 16:52 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 19:18 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.18 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 18:59 | −0.28 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cam York D | 23:30 | −0.29 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 24:14 | −0.34 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 26:57 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.56 | −0.01 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 20:38 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 15:39 | −0.41 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 21:22 | −0.41 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.11 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 23:23 | −0.56 | −0.41 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 64:59 | +1.50 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:53 | 1 | 2 | +1.07 | +0.37 | +0.38 | +0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Guenther R | 22:37 | 2 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.44 | +0.53 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:31 | +0.30 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 20:13 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.18 | −0.25 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| John Marino D | 22:05 | +0.24 | +0.32 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 17:50 | +0.15 | +0.26 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:02 | +0.07 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 16:40 | +0.07 | +0.27 | +0.00 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:00 | +0.06 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 18:05 | +0.05 | +0.23 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 17:52 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 23:53 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.36 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:29 | +0.02 | +0.25 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:32 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 11:51 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:17 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 11:18 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 9:49 | −0.28 | +0.16 | −0.41 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 64:59 | −0.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.