STL beat UTA 2–1. STL also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jordan Kyrou scored at 7:13 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Connor Ingram saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:41 |  STL | Alexandre Texier from Radek Faksa, Alexey Toropchenko | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P3 3:27 |  UTA | Michael Kesselring from Nick Bjugstad, Kevin Stenlund | 1–1 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 7:13 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Texier L | 11:54 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.19 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:22 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.06 | +0.61 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:22 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.42 | −0.17 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 24:36 | +0.13 | +0.26 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 23:02 | +0.12 | +0.35 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 12:30 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 10:02 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 10:34 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 13:14 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 11:19 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 19:53 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 15:55 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:49 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 17:07 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:32 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 19:59 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.35 | −0.73 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 15:27 | −0.47 | +0.17 | −0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 12:23 | −0.65 | +0.04 | −0.49 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | +1.07 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kesselring D | 19:02 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.09 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 13:34 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 13:53 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:30 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 14:58 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 11:24 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 12:56 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 19:31 | −0.15 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 22:46 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:30 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:09 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 27:50 | −0.31 | −0.20 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 17:25 | −0.32 | −0.28 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 20:44 | −0.33 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 13:54 | −0.35 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 10:43 | −0.49 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 25:15 | −0.53 | −0.24 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 18:22 | −0.58 | −0.18 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 58:34 | +2.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.