BUF beat NSH 4–3. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jiri Kulich scored at 17:56 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Justus Annunen allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:25 | BUF | Ryan McLeod from Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Quinn | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:41 | BUF | Jiri Kulich from Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 10:56 |  NSH | Luke Evangelista from Justin Barron, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–2 | 17% → 30% |
| P1 17:06 | NSH | Brady Skjei from Colton Sissons, Michael McCarron | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 2:51 | NSH | Tommy Novak from Brady Skjei, Fedor Svechkov | 3–2 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 12:26 | BUF | Jason Zucker from Alex Tuch | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 17:56 | BUF | Jiri Kulich from Tage Thompson, JJ Peterka | 3–4 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Novak C | 11:53 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.13 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 16:21 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 21:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.19 | +0.91 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 19:27 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 13:19 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 11:55 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Roman Josi D | 25:02 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 12:52 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:55 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 15:06 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 9:48 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Justin Barron D | 17:13 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:41 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.16 | −0.66 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.10 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:36 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:18 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 12:56 | −0.44 | −0.05 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:26 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:20 | −0.54 | −0.00 | −0.54 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 57:59 | −1.44 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiri Kulich C | 15:44 | 2 | +1.53 | −0.04 | +1.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 14:43 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.10 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 13:48 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.00 | +0.50 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 21:38 | +0.27 | +0.26 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 12:39 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 20:42 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.22 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:20 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 17:07 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 10:43 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 18:33 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:14 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Kozak C | 10:02 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:44 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:05 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 12:33 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 12:27 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 26:19 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:39 | 2 | −0.51 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:00 | +0.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.