DET beat EDM 3–2 in a shootout. DET lost the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 5.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dylan Larkin scored at 11:47 of the second, moving DET’s win probability from 26% to 47%. Alex Lyon saved 4.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:49 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 10:29 | EDM | Jeff Skinner from Zach Hyman, Adam Henrique | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 9:59 | DET | Michael Rasmussen from Jonatan Berggren, Elmer Soderblom | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 11:47 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Marco Kasper | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond L | 23:42 | +0.80 | +0.34 | −0.42 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.66 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:16 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.17 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 21:02 | +0.46 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 9:48 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 20:48 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Shine R | 6:53 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 11:36 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 8:37 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 25:03 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.46 | −0.79 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.09 | +0.22 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 20:47 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 20:31 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.48 | −0.67 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 12:09 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 30:44 | −0.25 | +0.09 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 27:12 | −0.36 | −0.08 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 9:42 | −0.37 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 12:49 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.17 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 18:59 | −0.56 | −0.58 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:45 | −0.89 | −0.51 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 65:00 | +4.87 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 11:55 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.00 | +0.57 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 24:08 | +0.25 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 12:57 | +0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 12:06 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 25:40 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.64 | −0.61 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 13:29 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 18:31 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:02 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.62 | −0.57 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| John Klingberg D | 16:39 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 10:50 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Philp C | 7:26 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:55 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:31 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 12:16 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 12:42 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 25:55 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.69 | −0.95 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.32 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 23:09 | −0.72 | −0.12 | −0.35 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.29 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:01 | 1 | −1.09 | +0.22 | −1.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 64:53 | +1.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.