CAR beat CHI 3–2. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mikko Rantanen scored at 4:52 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 73%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:57 | CAR | Seth JarvisSH from Juha Jaaska | 0–1 | 52% → 70% |
| P1 18:38 |  CHI | Ilya Mikheyev from Nick Foligno, Jason Dickinson | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:52 | CAR | Mikko Rantanen from Jack Roslovic, Dmitry Orlov | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 5:59 | CAR | Jaccob Slavin from Jackson Blake, Juha Jaaska | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P3 6:29 | CHI | Connor Bedard from Seth Jones | 2–3 | 5% → 20% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 13:22 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.08 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 23:47 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.25 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 15:33 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 21:15 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 25:22 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Nolan Allan D | 16:58 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 16:47 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 15:38 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 17:30 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 9:51 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 16:57 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:23 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 12:09 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 13:25 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 14:09 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.04 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 11:24 | −0.37 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 18:05 | −0.40 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 18:54 | −0.40 | −0.23 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 57:51 | +0.42 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaccob Slavin D | 25:51 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.29 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 21:42 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.18 | +0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 19:43 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.11 | +0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 23:43 | +0.28 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 16:33 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 15:40 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:52 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:52 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 21:12 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:37 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juha Jaaska L | 8:59 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Suzuki C | 6:12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 12:16 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 15:30 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 19:04 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.15 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 16:01 | −0.39 | +0.08 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:03 | −0.61 | +0.02 | −0.82 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 60:00 | −0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.