ANA beat SEA 6–4. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Robby Fabbri scored at 5:39 of the second, moving ANA’s win probability from 47% to 67%. Philipp Grubauer allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:23 |  ANA | Troy Terry from Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:43 | SEA | Eeli Tolvanen from Brandon Montour | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 8:20 | SEA | Mitchell Stephens from Jamie Oleksiak, Tye Kartye | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:59 | ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Robby Fabbri | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:01 | SEA | Jaden Schwartz from Kaapo Kakko, Matty Beniers | 2–3 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 1:04 | ANA | Mason McTavish from Ryan Strome, Jackson LaCombe | 3–3 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 5:39 | ANA | Robby Fabbri from Mason McTavish | 4–3 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:58 | ANA | Jackson LaCombe from Isac Lundeström, Brett Leason | 5–3 | 68% → 83% |
| P3 6:15 | SEA | Shane WrightPP from Jared McCann, Brandon Montour | 5–4 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 18:44 | ANA | Frank VatranoEN unassisted | 6–4 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish C | 16:11 | 1 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.01 | +0.88 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.04 |
| Robby Fabbri C | 15:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.07 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Troy Terry R | 18:11 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 21:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.27 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 15:33 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.10 | +0.50 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 19:52 | +0.34 | +0.18 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:26 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:57 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 13:34 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 16:28 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 15:05 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:28 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 17:32 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 12:31 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 20:56 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 14:11 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 11:49 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:00 | 1 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | −0.79 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Stephens C | 9:29 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.03 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 11:26 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.05 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 21:41 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.04 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Wright C | 12:28 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.07 | +0.66 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 20:38 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:55 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 13:43 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 22:23 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 23:23 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 17:59 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 6:16 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 14:41 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 23:37 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:55 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 10:57 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 24:03 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.46 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 14:05 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.13 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 57:57 | −2.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.