NYI beat COL 5–2. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Simon Holmstrom scored at 1:54 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 78%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:11 |  NYI | Anders Lee from Brock Nelson, Tony DeAngelo | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 13:00 |  COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 1:54 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 11:23 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Anders Lee, Scott Perunovich | 1–3 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 14:55 | COL | Jack Drury from Martin Necas, Josh Manson | 2–3 | 1% → 12% |
| P3 17:31 | NYI | Alexander Romanov from Simon Holmstrom, Casey Cizikas | 2–4 | 93% → 100% |
| P3 18:50 | NYI | Simon HolmstromEN from Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:37 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.02 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 12:20 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.04 | +0.52 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 24:58 | +0.38 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 9:56 | +0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 13:22 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 24:42 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 21:44 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:55 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 14:12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 14:39 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 17:12 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:36 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 25:24 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.23 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 21:12 | −0.18 | +0.12 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 13:02 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 11:04 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 9:21 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:53 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.21 | −0.63 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 58:51 | −2.02 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Romanov D | 25:12 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.06 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:11 | 2 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.04 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bo Horvat C | 18:18 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.05 | +0.63 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Anders Lee C | 15:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.04 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Scott Perunovich D | 18:52 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 24:17 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 8:05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 10:29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 22:11 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:06 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 7:31 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 18:22 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:15 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaiah George D | 12:26 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 17:07 | −0.27 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 13:36 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:11 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:38 | 2 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:00 | +0.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.