COL beat NYR 5–4. COL lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen scored at 19:45 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 49% to 96%. Igor Shesterkin allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:43 | COL | Jack Drury from Keaton Middleton, Jonathan Drouin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:26 | COL | Cale Makar from Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 7:10 |  NYR | Sam Carrick from Matt Rempe, Urho Vaakanainen | 2–1 | 24% → 37% |
| P1 8:36 | NYR | Vincent Trocheck from Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin | 2–2 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 14:36 | COL | Cale MakarPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | 3–2 | 48% → 64% |
| P2 16:01 | COL | Juuso Parssinen from Casey Mittelstadt | 4–2 | 71% → 87% |
| P2 18:05 | NYR | Will Borgen from Reilly Smith, Will Cuylle | 4–3 | 12% → 28% |
| P3 15:02 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Vincent Trocheck, Reilly Smith | 4–4 | 13% → 51% |
| P3 19:45 | COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Cale Makar | 5–4 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 25:36 | 2 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.03 | +0.81 | +0.21 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:37 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 13:37 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.05 | +0.42 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 19:34 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.07 | −0.17 | +0.26 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 18:35 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Jack Drury C | 12:14 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.18 | +0.43 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Keaton Middleton D | 8:04 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 19:30 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 23:01 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 25:58 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:52 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.23 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 13:42 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 13:46 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 12:14 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 22:45 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 10:58 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 13:47 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 10:10 | −0.41 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:00 | −0.45 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Carrick C | 8:29 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.03 | +0.41 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Will Borgen D | 17:12 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.00 | +0.41 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 14:34 | 2 | +0.29 | +0.20 | −0.17 | +0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.06 | +0.19 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Artemi Panarin L | 23:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.05 | +0.26 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 19:37 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Rempe C | 8:49 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:01 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 12:53 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 16:35 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 18:57 | +0.06 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 17:21 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 22:30 | −0.05 | +0.18 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 11:04 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 15:35 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Edstrom C | 9:07 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:54 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:11 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 59:45 | −2.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.