NSH beat SJS 6–5. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Fedor Svechkov scored on the power play at 8:16 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 49% to 78%. Yaroslav Askarov allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:58 | NSH | Gustav NyquistPP from Tommy Novak, Brady Skjei | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 4:52 | NSH | Tommy Novak from Zachary L'Heureux, Fedor Svechkov | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 6:53 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Justin Barron | 3–0 | 76% → 89% |
| P1 8:12 |  SJS | Walker Duehr from Nikolai Kovalenko, Mario Ferraro | 3–1 | 10% → 24% |
| P1 16:34 | SJS | Mario Ferraro from Mikael Granlund, Timothy Liljegren | 3–2 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 1:38 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Colton Sissons, Brady Skjei | 4–2 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 7:07 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Jonathan Marchessault, Roman Josi | 5–2 | 84% → 94% |
| P2 12:39 | SJS | Henry Thrun from Alexander Wennberg, Nikolai Kovalenko | 5–3 | 4% → 14% |
| P2 13:54 | SJS | Fabian Zetterlund from Will Smith, Mikael Granlund | 5–4 | 14% → 30% |
| P2 15:21 | SJS | Macklin CelebriniPP from Mikael Granlund, William Eklund | 5–5 | 30% → 54% |
| P3 8:16 | NSH | Fedor SvechkovPP from Brady Skjei, Zachary L'Heureux | 6–5 | 49% → 78% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 14:47 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.07 | +1.23 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 13:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.26 | +0.67 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tommy Novak C | 12:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.29 | +0.56 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 16:54 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.07 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 16:03 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.07 | +0.43 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 24:32 | 3 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 13:39 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 14:21 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:26 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.05 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 17:23 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 9:38 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 25:31 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 20:50 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:52 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 7:39 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 16:23 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:08 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.03 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 16:39 | 2 | −0.42 | +0.31 | −0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 59:55 | −1.53 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Duehr R | 8:52 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.02 | +0.80 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 18:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.16 | +0.78 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Henry Thrun D | 15:05 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.10 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 14:27 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.09 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 19:37 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| William Eklund L | 20:12 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.23 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 7:49 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 17:13 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:18 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 13:36 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Walman D | 24:51 | −0.12 | +0.13 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:24 | 3 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.26 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Will Smith C | 16:17 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 13:28 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:44 | −0.30 | +0.22 | −0.51 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 13:49 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 14:48 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 20:32 | −0.40 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 58:08 | −1.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.