LAK beat FLA 2–1. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adrian Kempe scored at 13:12 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 51% to 86%. Darcy Kuemper saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 7:27 |  FLA | Evan RodriguesPP from Anton Lundell, Mackie Samoskevich | 1–0 | 48% → 68% |
| P3 6:41 | LAK | Samuel Helenius from Tanner Jeannot, Jordan Spence | 1–1 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 13:12 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Kevin Fiala, Brandt Clarke | 1–2 | 51% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues C | 9:24 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.07 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:53 | +0.12 | +0.29 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 24:41 | +0.08 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 13:58 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 22:17 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:49 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 17:41 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 7:46 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 10:47 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 22:32 | −0.09 | +0.36 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 13:15 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 14:25 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:37 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 22:39 | −0.14 | +0.31 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 9:29 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 13:10 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 19:35 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 13:38 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 57:24 | +0.31 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Helenius C | 6:50 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.05 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 19:29 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.21 | +0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Akil Thomas C | 9:31 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 21:37 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 21:05 | +0.07 | +0.19 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 9:51 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Moverare D | 10:29 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 20:43 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.40 | −0.06 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 13:06 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 19:34 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Turcotte C | 11:17 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 18:05 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 20:20 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 9:42 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 25:02 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 24:51 | −0.32 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 16:39 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 18:12 | −0.44 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 60:00 | +1.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.