BUF beat VAN 3–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: JJ Peterka scored at 13:33 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 49% to 84%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:34 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Jiri Kulich | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 3:05 | VAN | Phillip Di Giuseppe from Carson Soucy, J.T. Miller | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 10:29 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 8:42 | BUF | Jiri Kulich from JJ Peterka, Rasmus Dahlin | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 13:33 | BUF | JJ Peterka from Rasmus Dahlin, Jiri Kulich | 3–2 | 49% → 84% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Peterka R | 21:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.29 | +0.42 | +0.21 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:17 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.12 | +0.31 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Jiri Kulich C | 17:47 | 1 | 2 | +0.35 | −0.17 | +0.26 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:10 | 2 | +0.33 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 22:44 | +0.17 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 10:03 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 16:06 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 17:21 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:38 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 6:28 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 11:04 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 7:48 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 19:47 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 7:48 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 18:10 | −0.19 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 23:01 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 17:58 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 21:42 | −0.41 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:00 | +1.28 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 17:54 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.36 | +0.17 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 10:18 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.02 | +0.40 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 26:10 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 23:31 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:39 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 20:14 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.28 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:11 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 19:18 | +0.05 | +0.23 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 17:39 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 9:37 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 17:15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 13:32 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 14:03 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 9:41 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Friedman D | 15:01 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 17:47 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 15:27 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 17:28 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.37 | −0.65 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 58:15 | −1.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.