WSH beat EDM 3–2. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matt Roy scored at 8:14 of the second, moving WSH’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Logan Thompson saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:02 |  EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Darnell Nurse, Vasily Podkolzin | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:01 |  WSH | Tom Wilson from Aliaksei Protas, John Carlson | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 8:14 | WSH | Matt Roy from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Connor McMichael | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 3:49 | WSH | Pierre-Luc Dubois from Lars Eller, Logan Thompson | 3–1 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 4:50 | EDM | Corey Perry from Leon Draisaitl | 3–2 | 8% → 24% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Roy D | 20:00 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.17 | +0.90 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 18:28 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.01 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 21:34 | +0.18 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 15:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.55 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.40 | +0.03 |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 17:35 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 17:34 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 10:03 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 22:43 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 8:52 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethen Frank R | 7:35 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 15:51 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 14:15 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 17:30 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 19:42 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 16:27 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 17:56 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 15:46 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 16:50 | −0.44 | −0.07 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 59:49 | +2.23 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Perry R | 14:02 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.12 | +0.87 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.12 | +0.38 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.05 |
| Troy Stecher D | 13:59 | +0.17 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 12:04 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:54 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Philp C | 5:15 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:42 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 13:13 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.16 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 19:48 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 14:01 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 10:08 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:07 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 21:26 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 14:49 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 13:14 | −0.36 | +0.11 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 14:05 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:59 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 16:40 | −0.66 | −0.02 | −0.65 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 57:53 | −1.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.