CAR beat DAL 2–1. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jesperi Kotkaniemi scored at 10:35 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 81%. Pyotr Kochetkov saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 17:07 |  CAR | Jesperi Kotkaniemi from Martin Necas | 1–0 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 10:11 |  DAL | Thomas Harley from Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen | 1–1 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 10:35 | CAR | Jesperi Kotkaniemi from Sean Walker, Eric Robinson | 2–1 | 48% → 81% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:56 | 2 | +1.73 | +0.08 | +1.44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 13:16 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 16:37 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 20:47 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 17:35 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:40 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 9:44 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 14:18 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juha Jaaska L | 6:34 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 17:54 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 8:24 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:22 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 25:35 | −0.23 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 16:22 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.18 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:19 | −0.32 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 22:14 | −0.35 | −0.33 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:25 | −0.51 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 15:04 | 1 | −0.56 | +0.01 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 59:54 | +2.38 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harley D | 22:03 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.16 | +0.69 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 23:38 | +0.33 | +0.28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 18:20 | +0.29 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:32 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 18:41 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 20:07 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 19:20 | +0.08 | +0.26 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.06 | ||
| Matěj Blümel R | 5:02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 10:14 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 12:08 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 10:09 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 18:08 | −0.11 | +0.31 | −0.44 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 10:38 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 16:15 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 14:06 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 16:14 | −0.31 | +0.08 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:02 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 19:22 | −0.45 | +0.16 | −0.64 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 58:01 | −0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.