MIN beat COL 3–1. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Yakov Trenin scored at 2:08 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 48% to 74%. Marc-Andre Fleury saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:18 | MIN | Jake Middleton from Liam Ohgren, Frederick Gaudreau | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 18:52 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Samuel Girard | 1–1 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 2:08 | MIN | Yakov Trenin from David Jiricek, Liam Ohgren | 2–1 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 3:43 | MIN | Brock Faber from Ryan Hartman, Jake Middleton | 3–1 | 75% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yakov Trenin C | 10:37 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.03 | +0.36 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 14:44 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| David Jiricek D | 13:33 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.19 | −0.09 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 23:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.07 | +0.38 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Hartman R | 12:39 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brock Faber D | 28:17 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.02 | +0.33 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam Ohgren L | 9:04 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.12 | −0.19 | +0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 16:45 | +0.12 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 13:39 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 18:15 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 13:44 | +0.02 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 25:13 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 9:55 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jakub Lauko C | 7:52 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 16:42 | −0.07 | +0.20 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 7:00 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 26:35 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 25:43 | −0.77 | +0.03 | −0.31 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | +1.67 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 25:57 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.04 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.04 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 17:54 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 26:55 | +0.16 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.09 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:34 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 5:50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ivan Ivan C | 3:09 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 12:00 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jere Innala L | 4:12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 14:34 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 16:41 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 14:46 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Keaton Middleton D | 8:38 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 29:49 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 16:21 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 30:23 | −0.42 | −0.20 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 21:07 | −0.46 | −0.17 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:42 | −0.52 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.06 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 20:05 | −0.67 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 56:23 | +0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.