DAL beat DET 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (DET 3.0, DAL 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Matěj Blümel scored at 5:26 of the first, moving DAL’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Jake Oettinger saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:26 |  DAL | Matěj Blümel from Justin Hryckowian, Colin Blackwell | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:05 | DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 14:18 | DAL | Mavrik Bourque from Ilya Lyubushkin, Matt Duchene | 0–3 | 84% → 92% |
| P3 12:01 |  DET | Marco Kasper from Simon Edvinsson, Dylan Larkin | 1–3 | 0% → 3% |
| P3 14:09 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Jason Robertson | 1–4 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Kasper C | 15:31 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.08 | +0.20 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 21:34 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 22:36 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 12:15 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 16:07 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 16:42 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:53 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 14:24 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 13:13 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:31 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 18:31 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 13:57 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 20:27 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 15:18 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 13:50 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 17:04 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 15:44 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 60:00 | −1.04 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mavrik Bourque C | 13:49 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.08 | +0.43 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 15:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.03 | +0.32 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 16:40 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.08 | +0.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Matěj Blümel R | 9:21 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.05 | +0.31 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 20:33 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 15:27 | 2 | +0.24 | +0.13 | −0.16 | +0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Justin Hryckowian C | 10:02 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 23:55 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 21:20 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 22:30 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:55 | −0.10 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 13:29 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.22 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Bäck C | 18:21 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:54 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 15:53 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 16:02 | −0.17 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 17:26 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 13:40 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 59:50 | +1.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.