OTT beat NJD 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 2.1, NJD 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Artem Zub scored at 2:50 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 48% to 74%. Anton Forsberg saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 13:16 | OTT | Zack Ostapchuk from Michael Amadio, Matthew Highmore | 1–0 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 14:34 |  NJD | Tomas Tatar from Curtis Lazar, Luke Hughes | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 2:50 | OTT | Artem Zub from Shane Pinto | 2–1 | 48% → 74% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Zub D | 21:48 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.17 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 7:14 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.04 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 19:39 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Matthew Highmore C | 14:16 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 18:47 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 11:27 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 13:14 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:23 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 21:04 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 7:37 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 20:32 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 18:00 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 21:34 | −0.06 | +0.19 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 8:22 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 18:34 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 25:12 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 16:58 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 15:19 | −0.68 | +0.08 | −0.56 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 60:00 | +1.05 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Tatar L | 11:02 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.05 | +0.60 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 11:30 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 22:00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 9:50 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:28 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 13:47 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 21:47 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 19:58 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 11:58 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Timo Meier R | 17:31 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 12:56 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 16:59 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 21:27 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 19:50 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 16:38 | −0.26 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:02 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 16:23 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 21:18 | −0.43 | −0.17 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 57:36 | −0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.