NSH beat MIN 6–2. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Filip Forsberg scored on the power play at 17:29 of the first, moving NSH’s win probability from 54% to 71%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:23 | MIN | David Jiricek from Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:22 | NSH | Colton Sissons from Michael McCarron, Luke Schenn | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 17:29 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 0:54 | NSH | Steven Stamkos from Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 2:07 | NSH | Fedor Svechkov from Tommy Novak | 1–4 | 86% → 94% |
| P3 2:28 | MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Mats Zuccarello | 2–4 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 16:20 | NSH | Filip Forsberg unassisted | 2–5 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 18:11 | NSH | Brady SkjeiEN from Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Jiricek D | 12:59 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.13 | +0.84 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 22:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.17 | +0.46 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Marcus Foligno L | 13:50 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 6:53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 9:29 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jakub Lauko C | 9:18 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 10:30 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 14:50 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 15:46 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 19:13 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 10:55 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 14:19 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 23:22 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Chisholm D | 19:02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 23:31 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:35 | −0.37 | −0.14 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.07 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 23:03 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brock Faber D | 25:10 | −0.66 | −0.08 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 58:29 | −0.78 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:12 | 2 | 2 | +1.14 | +0.18 | +1.11 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:28 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.18 | +0.79 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 9:58 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 16:51 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.09 | +0.61 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 17:48 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 12:36 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 11:58 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 16:16 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 12:36 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 14:55 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Roman Josi D | 24:34 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 1:16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:19 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 19:08 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 15:39 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 18:03 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:13 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.11 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 21:25 | 1 | −0.63 | +0.13 | −0.75 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:00 | +0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.