OTT beat BOS 6–5 in a shootout. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Josh Norris scored on the power play at 19:48 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 4% to 51%. Leevi Meriläinen allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:47 | OTT | Adam Gaudette from Nick Jensen, Claude Giroux | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:35 | OTT | Tim Stützle unassisted | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 11:07 | BOS | Pavel ZachaPP from David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei | 1–2 | 17% → 29% |
| P1 19:22 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Morgan Geekie, Mason Lohrei | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:06 | BOS | Morgan Geekie from Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak | 3–2 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 5:41 | OTT | Josh NorrisPP from Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle | 3–3 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 14:38 | BOS | John Beecher from Mark Kastelic | 4–3 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 11:23 | BOS | Vinni Lettieri from Justin Brazeau, Jordan Oesterle | 5–3 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 16:47 | OTT | Nick JensenPP from Shane Pinto, Drake Batherson | 5–4 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 19:48 | OTT | Josh NorrisPP from Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot | 5–5 | 4% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Beecher C | 13:04 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 17:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.73 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 |
| Vinni Lettieri C | 12:47 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.02 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 21:55 | 1 | 2 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.54 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 |
| Mark Kastelic C | 9:06 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 14:47 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 23:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.61 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Brandon Carlo D | 20:09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 19:13 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.40 | −0.02 | −0.32 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 10:31 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 17:08 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 22:00 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 12:25 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 20:22 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Poitras C | 10:32 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 19:20 | −0.50 | −0.23 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 24:26 | −0.51 | −0.12 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:40 | −0.84 | −0.28 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 65:00 | −0.82 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Norris C | 22:16 | 2 | +1.43 | +0.38 | +1.29 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 22:35 | 1 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.06 | +0.42 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.66 |
| Nick Jensen D | 18:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.07 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Gaudette R | 9:47 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.07 | +0.44 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 27:45 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.22 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 9:13 | +0.15 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 7:21 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 21:51 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.16 | |
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 11:32 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 10:57 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 18:09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 21:13 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 22:23 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 26:49 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.23 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 6:40 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 12:56 | −0.43 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 22:15 | −0.59 | +0.49 | −0.91 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 19:12 | 1 | −0.81 | +0.15 | −0.96 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 62:02 | −1.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.