WSH beat OTT 1–0 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (WSH 2.3, OTT 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex Ovechkin scored at 3:07 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Logan Thompson saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT 3:07 |  WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Rasmus Sandin | 1–0 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin L | 16:34 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.03 | +0.64 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 18:53 | +0.24 | +0.27 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 20:23 | +0.16 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 22:19 | +0.13 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 21:22 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 14:46 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 20:27 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 17:23 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 7:34 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethen Frank R | 6:53 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 17:10 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 19:47 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 18:03 | −0.15 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.05 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 20:25 | −0.18 | +0.17 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 10:48 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 17:14 | −0.22 | +0.24 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 13:44 | −0.31 | +0.22 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 17:43 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 63:00 | +1.97 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Pinto C | 20:10 | +0.18 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 16:43 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 11:38 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 8:17 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 21:48 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 8:36 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 21:47 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 23:00 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 12:18 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 7:51 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 12:29 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 14:58 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 26:50 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 19:00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 19:39 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:49 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 20:37 | −0.55 | −0.41 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 17:51 | −0.81 | −0.29 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 63:07 | +1.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.